YAVA'S BI-WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE REPORT: DUAL-USE DISPATCH
- harrygeisler2
- 5 days ago
- 9 min read
Welcome to the latest edition of Dual-Use Dispatch – your bi-weekly briefing on the intersection of commercial innovation and national security.
In this issue, global rearmament is ramping up. India has approved a $9 billion weapons package, and Turkey has inked a major fighter jet deal with the UK. Allies are fortifying their defenses. Indonesia is eyeing more A400M airlifters, NATO is hailing its rapid response to deter Russian incursions, and Chinese bombers staged drills near Taiwan ahead of a Trump–Xi summit. Meanwhile, cyber and infrastructure resilience are in the spotlight. Russia is targeting Ukraine’s power grid as winter approaches, and a stealthy telecom hack has exposed systemic risks.
MAJOR PROCUREMENT DEVELOPMENTS
India’s $9 Billion Arms Push
New Delhi’s defense acquisition council cleared proposals on October 23 to spend 790 billion rupees (~$9 billion) on new missile systems, high-mobility vehicles, naval guns, and more. The approvals span all three services. This includes Nag anti-tank guided missiles and mobile ELINT stations for the Army. The Navy will receive amphibious landing ships, advanced light torpedoes, and 30 mm naval cannons. The Air Force will benefit from a long-range drone swarm system. Officials have cast the package as a boost to India’s combat power amid “challenging” regional security. Domestic defense firms are expected to benefit under the push for indigenous systems. This marks one of India’s biggest procurement waves in recent years. The nation is racing to modernize its forces in the face of an assertive China and ongoing tensions with Pakistan.
Turkey’s Eurofighter Deal with the UK
Turkey has sealed a landmark agreement to buy 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets from Britain for £8 billion (~$10.7 billion). This deal includes a comprehensive weapons package. The agreement was signed in Ankara on October 27, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in attendance. The package includes MBDA’s Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, advanced ASRAAMs, and Brimstone ground-attack missiles for the Typhoons. This marks Turkey’s biggest fighter purchase in decades and signals Ankara’s warmest ties with the West in years. Turkish officials stated that the advanced warplanes will help close gaps with regional rivals, such as Israel, which have deployed high-end jets across the Middle East. The first batch of Typhoons is expected to arrive in 2030. Ankara is also in talks to acquire 24 lightly-used Typhoons from Qatar and Oman to quickly bolster its aging fleet. While some analysts have called the purchase pricey, Turkey views it as vital for air defense and interoperability with NATO. This move sets aside past friction in favor of deepening UK partnership amid regional instability.
Indonesia Eyes More A400M Airlifters
As part of a broader military modernization drive, Indonesia may buy four additional Airbus A400M transport planes. This would reinforce its strategic airlift capacity. President Prabowo Subianto, a former general, stated on November 3 that Jakarta is considering negotiations for the extra A400Ms. This would nearly triple its fleet, as Indonesia received its first two A400Ms earlier this year. Big-ticket acquisitions have picked up since Prabowo became defense minister in 2019 and then president in 2024. The A400M, a versatile heavy transport, would enhance Indonesia’s ability to move troops and supplies across its vast archipelago. It would also aid disaster response. This fits into Jakarta’s pattern of revamping its aging military through a series of hardware deals. These include orders for Rafale and F-15EX fighters, new frigates, and drones. Bolstering airlift aligns with Indonesia’s aims to be a regional humanitarian hub and strengthen defense ties with NATO suppliers amid China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific.
STARTUP RADAR: DUAL-USE IN FOCUS
Vermeer (USA) – GPS-Free Navigation for Contested Environments
A low-profile but increasingly vital startup is gaining attention for solving one of modern warfare’s most pressing problems: how to navigate when GPS is denied. Vermeer, a New York-based company founded in 2019, has developed a computer vision-powered “Visual Positioning System” (VPS). This system enables drones and robotic systems to operate autonomously without relying on satellite signals. By matching live video feeds with known terrain and built-in maps, Vermeer’s platform allows unmanned systems to fly, land, and maneuver in environments where GPS is jammed, spoofed, or simply unavailable.
This capability has proven especially critical on the front lines in Ukraine. Russian forces routinely deploy electronic warfare to blind drones. Vermeer’s VPS has reportedly been deployed by Ukrainian forces and is being evaluated for broader use by NATO partners. Its dual-use potential extends well beyond the battlefield. It can be applied to delivery drones navigating dense cities and autonomous vehicles operating underground or in natural disaster zones where GPS is disrupted.
Vermeer’s pitch to defense customers is clear: resilience equals mission assurance. As militaries prepare for future conflicts in electromagnetically contested environments, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, systems that don’t depend on satellite infrastructure offer a crucial edge. The company’s roots trace back to the US Air Force Techstars accelerator and AFWERX programs. It has partnered with multiple defense primes, including Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, to integrate its technology into larger platforms.
Recent Developments (Oct 2025)
Series A Milestone
Vermeer closed a $10 million Series A funding round in late October 2025. This funding round was led by Draper Associates, a prominent dual-use tech investor, with participation from Rockaway Ventures and AeroX. The funding will support hiring, further AI training, and deployment support for both defense and commercial customers.
Combat Validation
Vermeer’s system is already operational in Ukraine. It provides battlefield navigation for drones under GPS-denied conditions. This real-world usage is seen as a major credibility boost as Western militaries look to ruggedize autonomous systems.
Dual-Use Growth Path
Beyond defense, Vermeer is exploring use cases in drone logistics, mining, infrastructure inspection, and autonomous ground vehicles—wherever GPS signals are blocked or unreliable. The goal is to make VPS a default autonomy layer for mission-critical mobility.
Competitive Landscape
While many autonomy companies rely heavily on GPS or lidar, Vermeer’s edge lies in pure vision-based guidance. This makes it cheaper, lighter, and more resilient. Competitors include firms like Shield AI and Skydio, but Vermeer’s core bet is that GPS-free operation will become table stakes in any near-peer conflict or remote logistics environment.
Company Snapshot
Name: Vermeer
Headquarters: New York City, USA
Founded: 2019
Funding: ~$10 million raised (Series A in Oct 2025)
Notable Investors/Partners: Draper Associates, Rockaway Ventures, AeroX; partnerships with USAF, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman
Website: https://getvermeer.com
MAJOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS
NATO: Deterred Incursions, Hybrid Threats
NATO’s top commander says Russia appears “deterred” after the Alliance’s robust response to recent airspace violations. However, he warns that Moscow is adapting with subtler “hybrid” tactics. US General Alexus Grynkewich noted that Russian jets which crossed into Estonia in September were promptly intercepted. Russian drones violating Polish airspace were shot down—the first time NATO forces engaged Russian targets in the Ukraine war. NATO’s firm actions have made the Kremlin “more careful” not to repeat overt incursions. However, at least 38 mysterious drone incidents have since been logged across Northern Europe, likely testing the Alliance's resolve. In response, NATO and EU states are racing to bolster counter-drone defenses and fortify their eastern flank.
Chinese Bombers Drill Near Taiwan
In a brazen show of force days before the Trump–Xi meeting, China’s PLA flew nuclear-capable H-6K bombers and fighter escorts around Taiwan for “simulated confrontation drills.” State media publicized the exercise on October 27, clearly aimed at intimidating Taipei and underscoring Beijing’s territorial claims as the US and Chinese presidents met in South Korea. Taiwan’s defense ministry condemned the bomber flights as a “propaganda operation aimed at intimidation.” They urged the public to stay resilient against such psychological warfare. Chinese officials vowed to defend China’s sovereignty and warned against “foreign interference.” The timing of the drills appeared calibrated. Just minutes before sitting down with Xi, President Trump ordered the US military to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year halt—a stark reminder of hard power amid high-stakes talks.
Trump Orders Nuclear Test Resumption
In a move that has rocked the strategic stability norm, US President Donald Trump on October 30 instructed the Pentagon to restart nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992. This surprise directive, given just before Trump’s summit with Xi, cited the need to ensure the reliability of the US arsenal. It also aimed to signal resolve amid Russia’s and China’s military expansions. US officials stated preparations would begin at the Nevada Test Site. However, any live detonation is likely months away and would shatter a de facto global testing moratorium. Moscow quickly warned it would mirror any US test “tit-for-tat.” Analysts fear this could herald a new nuclear arms race, undermining the CTBT treaty. The decision comes as Russia has been brandishing nuclear projects, from a nuclear-powered cruise missile to undersea torpedoes. Putin also revoked Russia’s ratification of the test-ban pact. NATO allies have expressed concern, emphasizing that breaking the 30-year testing taboo could erode global non-proliferation efforts.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CYBERSECURITY DEVELOPMENTS
Ukraine Endures Renewed Grid Barrage
Russia launched a massive wave of drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in late October. This forced nationwide power restrictions and caused civilian casualties. The October 30 onslaught involved over 650 Shahed drones and 50 missiles. These strikes hit power plants and substations across central and western regions, killing at least seven people. Kyiv officials state that Moscow is blatantly targeting the electric grid as the cold winter months approach to demoralize the population. This marks the second straight winter Russia has attempted to cripple Ukraine’s grid as a war tactic. In response, Ukraine has been rushing to repair damage. They are deploying better air defense interceptors like Iris-T and NASAMS systems. They are also adding grid resilience, sourcing spare transformers, and installing backup battery storage. Officials say that despite inevitable outages, they are better prepared this year to keep the lights on and heating running through Russia’s “energy terror” campaign.
Stealthy Hack Breaches Telecom Tech Firm
A critical but little-known US telecom technology provider, Ribbon Communications, revealed it was hacked by a suspected nation-state actor. The intruders went undetected in its network for nearly a year. Ribbon facilitates voice and data links for many of the world’s largest telecom carriers, making this breach especially alarming. The company’s SEC filing in late October stated that hackers initially accessed its systems in December 2024 and weren’t discovered until September 2025. Three customer systems were impacted. However, Ribbon has found no evidence that the attackers stole sensitive data or penetrated clients’ networks. Cybersecurity experts note that this incident fits a broader pattern of state-backed espionage targeting the global telecommunications ecosystem. Chinese-linked hacker groups, in particular, have a history of infiltrating telecom hubs to spy on communications.
YAVA's TAKEAWAYS
Arms Race on Fast-Forward: From South Asia to NATO’s frontier, nations are expediting big-ticket arms buys in response to mounting threats. India’s ₹790 billion procurement blitz and Turkey’s Typhoon deal, following similar European moves last month, signal that peacetime caution is giving way to urgency. Expect more “buy, buy, buy” activity as governments prioritize air defense systems, fighter jets, and force multipliers. This is particularly true for systems that can be fielded fast to counter regional aggressors. The global rearmament trend of 2025 shows no sign of slowing. If anything, it’s accelerating as conflict pressures grow.
Deterrence by Overmatch – and Risk: The past weeks underscore a return to hard-power signaling. NATO’s rapid Eastern Sentry deployments and Poland’s drone shoot-downs appear to have checked Russia’s brazenness, at least for now. In the Indo-Pacific, however, China is unblinkingly flexing its military might. They are running nuclear-capable bomber drills to intimidate Taiwan. Meanwhile, Trump’s order to resume US nuclear tests and Putin’s reciprocal threats mark a jarring revival of Cold War brinkmanship. Together, these events reflect a doctrine of deterrence through overmatch: show the adversary you’re willing to go further. It’s a high-stakes game. This may bolster allied resolve but also edges the world into a more volatile strategic balance.
Resilience = Combat Power: Recent developments drive home that a nation’s strength is not just tanks and missiles. It also includes the robustness of its infrastructure and networks. Ukraine’s efforts to disperse and harden its power grid, while keeping the lights on through Russian barrages, directly impact its warfighting stamina. The sprawling telecom hack and the spike in cyberattacks on corporations show how adversaries can erode security by hitting supply chains and civilian systems. Allies are responding. NATO is patrolling undersea cables, the EU is pushing Big Tech to counter disinformation, and the UK is effectively treating cybersecurity as critical national defense. The takeaway is clear: societal resilience—energy, communications, and industry continuity—now underpins deterrence and defense. In modern conflict, keeping factories running or data flowing can matter as much as a new weapons system on the frontline.
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