BI-WEEKLY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 16.09.2025 to 30.09.2025

harrygeisler2
6 days ago
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YAVA's BI-WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE REPORT. Image Credit: ORP Orzeł. (Tomasz Grotnik photo)

Welcome to the latest edition of Dual-Use Dispatch – your bi-weekly briefing on the intersection of commercial innovation and national security.

In this issue: NATO allies accelerate their armament drive – Poland moves to acquire its first submarines and a new allied funding scheme unlocks US weapons for Ukraine, while Turkey eyes a blockbuster deal for American jets and airliners. Tensions drive rapid responses from Europe to Asia: France, Germany and others rush anti-drone defences to Denmark after rogue UAVs, as South Korea warns North Korea is nearing a nuclear-armed ICBM and China’s coercion in the South China Sea sparks clashes. On the tech front, an Israeli startup is shrinking satellite communications to handheld devices – reflecting a broader surge of dual-use innovation – and US agencies scramble to patch critical network gear under cyberattack. Infrastructure resilience takes centre stage: NATO’s eastern flank is fortifying power grids with bunkers and anti-drone nets, a major cyber incident snarls European air travel, and urgent fixes to digital vulnerabilities underscore that speed and security are the new stealth in modern defence.

MAJOR PROCUREMENT DEVELOPMENTS

Poland’s Orka Submarine Program: Warsaw will decide this week on a supplier for three new submarines under its long-delayed Orka programme, with the aim to sign a deal by year-end. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the purchase – Poland’s first new subs in decades – will modernise its undersea warfare and bolster NATO’s deterrence after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Bids from Germany, Italy and Sweden are in play for the multi-billion-dollar project. Italy’s Fincantieri has already partnered with Poland’s PGZ to support Orka, while South Korea’s Hanwha added a financing sweetener to its offer. The government’s push reflects a sense of urgency to “align more closely with NATO” amid heightened threats.
Allied-Funded Ukraine Arms Aid: The US has approved its first weapons shipments to Ukraine paid for by other NATO allies, inaugurating a novel mechanism to sustain Kyiv’s defence. Under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), Washington will transfer up to $1 billion in arms from US stockpiles – including urgently needed air-defence systems – using funds contributed by European allies. The program could grow to $10 billion, marking a new form of transatlantic burden-sharing as President Trump seeks ways to support Ukraine despite budget constraints. It’s the first major US military aid to Ukraine under Trump beyond residual packages authorised by former President Biden. Officials say PURL is delivering “the stuff [Ukraine’s forces] have been asking for”, helping stabilise front lines amid Russia’s drone and missile onslaught.
Turkey’s Big Buy in the Balance: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan plans to buy hundreds of US-made Boeing airliners and Lockheed Martin fighter jets – a deal reportedly worth over $10 billion – as he looks to modernise both Turkey’s civil aviation and air force. The package (first reported by Bloomberg) would include a major order of F-16 fighters and potentially revive talks on the next-generation F-35, alongside a large civilian Boeing aircraft purchase. The catch: it hinges on approval from Washington. Any F-35 component would be especially significant – Ankara was expelled from the F-35 program in 2019 after buying Russian S-400 missiles, and subsequently pivoted to negotiating for F-16s. Erdogan’s push now signals an effort to get Turkey’s defence ties with the US back on track, leveraging the promise of huge Boeing jet orders as part of the bargain.

Turkish Airlines orders up to 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, and commits to more 737 MAX jets. Image Credit: Boeing

STARTUP RADAR: DUAL-USE IN FOCUS

Commcrete (Israel) – Handheld Satellite Links for the Battlefield

An Israeli defence tech startup is putting satellite communications in the palm of a soldier’s hand – an innovation born from battlefield necessity and now attracting significant investment. Commcrete, founded in 2022 by veterans of Israel’s elite military tech units, develops ultra-compact SATCOM devices that give troops and first responders secure connectivity anywhere, without reliance on cell towers or bulky terminals. One of its flagship gadgets, nicknamed “Flipper,” can convert any conventional radio or walkie-talkie into a satellite-enabled communicator. By miniaturising satellite links, Commcrete is tackling a critical gap exposed in recent wars and disasters: when traditional networks go down or hostile jamming kicks in, front-line teams still need a lifeline. The startup’s technology proved its value during a major natural disaster in 2023, keeping emergency crews connected when terrestrial infrastructure was wiped out (according to Israeli media), and has since been deployed by special forces and rescue units in multiple countries.

Commcrete's founders. Image Credit: Commcrete

Commcrete’s mission has gained urgency as Israel faces growing strategic isolation. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently urged more “self-reliance, especially in defence,” amid signs that some Western suppliers are hesitating on military exports to Israel. That climate has only boosted local innovation. Commcrete announced on Sept. 30 that it raised $29 million in early-stage funding (including a $21 million Series A led by Greenfield Partners) to ramp up production of its handheld SATCOM systems. Notably, its backers include Mobileye founder Amnon Shashua – a sign of crossover interest from Israel’s high-tech investors. With new capital, the company plans to scale globally – expanding in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia – as demand grows for field-ready communication gear that can plug the connectivity gaps in both military and disaster-response operations.

“Speed is the new stealth” in modern doctrine, and Commcrete embodies that ethos by delivering a traditionally big-system capability (satellite comms) in a small, rapidly deployable form. It’s part of a broader trend of venture-backed dual-use startups stepping up to equip militaries with agile solutions – from autonomous drones to AI-driven sensors – at a pace that legacy contractors often can’t match. As great-power competition intensifies, technologies that “connect beyond borders” (to quote Commcrete’s motto) are becoming as critical as weapons, enabling resilient command-and-control even under attack.

Recent developments (Sept 2025):

Early Funding Milestone: Commcrete raised a total of $29 million across seed and Series A rounds, bolstering its valuation and manufacturing muscle. The $21 million Series A was led by Greenfield Partners with participation from RedSeed Ventures, plus earlier seed backing from prominent tech angels like Mobileye’s founder. This infusion will help the startup double down on R&D and set up overseas offices as it targets a growing global market.
Growing Adoption: The startup’s handheld SATCOM units are already in use with Israeli special operations units and international emergency response teams, proving their reliability in harsh conditions. Its devices – including the pocket-sized “Stardust” two-way satellite radio – have kept teams connected during infrastructure outages and in combat zones where traditional comms failed. Commcrete says its tech delivers 10× performance at a fraction of the size and power of legacy satcom rigs, without needing heavy antennas or fixed ground stations (a major plus for mobility and stealth).
Strategic Timing: Commcrete’s rise comes as Israel’s government and military seek home-grown solutions amid wartime supply hiccups. European political pressures have begun to limit arms exports to Israel, so having indigenous capabilities – from communications to precision weapons – is a national security imperative. The startup’s focus on interoperable, dual-use gear (useful to both soldiers and first responders) also opens diverse markets. With its tech on display at global defence expos and expansion into five continents already underway, Commcrete exemplifies how agile startups can fill critical gaps and strengthen resilience for allied nations, all while tapping commercial demand for robust communication in remote industries.

Company snapshot:

Name: Commcrete
HQ: Hevel Modi’im, Israel (with offices in Washington, DC)
Founded: 2022
Funding: $29 million raised (Seed + Series A as of Sept 2025)
Investors: Greenfield Partners, RedSeed Ventures, Q Fund (Amnon Shashua), others
Website: https://www.commcrete.com

MAJOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

Allies Boost Denmark’s Summit Security After Drone Incursions: France, Germany, Sweden and Britain rushed military personnel and anti-drone equipment to Denmark to help secure two European summits, after a spate of unidentified drones violated Danish airspace and even shut down Copenhagen’s airport for hours. Denmark banned civilian drone flights near the events and raised security, as NATO partners provided counter-UAV radars, a helicopter and jammer systems to prevent any airborne disruptions. The enhanced precautions come amid jitters over Russian spy drones testing NATO borders.

Allied countries police motorcycles patrol ahead of the EU Summit at Amalienborg in Copenhagen. Image Credit: EPA Images pic

North Korea’s ICBM Nearly Ready, says Seoul: South Korean President Lee Jae Myung warned that North Korea is in the final stage of developing an ICBM capable of hitting the United States with a nuclear warhead. Pyongyang still needs to perfect atmospheric re-entry technology for the missile, “but that... is likely to be resolved soon,” Lee noted. Speaking in New York, he urged dialogue to curb the North’s rapidly advancing arsenal – which he said has likely produced enough nuclear material to sustain Kim Jong Un’s regime, raising the stakes for arms control talks. The remarks underscore growing regional alarm as North Korea continues testing long-range missiles despite UN sanctions.
According to South Korea, North Korea could soon be capable of developing an ICBM capable of hitting the US. Image Credit: AP
Chinese Coast Guard Blasts Philippine Boat: Tensions flared in the South China Sea when a Chinese coast guard vessel fired water cannons and collided with a Philippine ship near the disputed Scarborough Shoal on Sept. 16. Beijing accused the Philippines of an “illegal intrusion” with a convoy of boats and even claimed a Philippine vessel “deliberately rammed” a Chinese ship – allegations Manila denied. The Philippines said its crew was on a routine mission to support local fishermen when harassed by nine Chinese ships. One Filipino was injured by shattered glass as powerful water cannons hit their boat. The incident – one of the most serious this year – highlights the risk of miscalculation as China seeks to assert control over resource-rich areas well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

A Chinese coast guard ship uses its water cannons on a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel. Image Credit: Philippine Coast Guard via AP

INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

NATO’s Eastern Flank Fortifies Power Grids: Four countries on NATO’s front line with Russia (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) have unveiled a €382 million plan to harden their electric grids against attacks. Spurred by recent Russian drone incursions – including drones shot down over Poland and a trespasser that shut a Danish airport – they’re installing concrete bunkers over critical substations and draping key sites with anti-drone nets. The plan also calls for stockpiling transformers and other hard-to-replace spares, treating energy infrastructure as “urgent” to defend. Lessons from Ukraine’s war, where Russia has bombarded the power grid, loom large in this effort. The Baltics and Poland have even asked the EU to co-fund 50% of the project, arguing that after billions spent decoupling from Russian energy, Western Europe must now help secure that investment.
Cyberattacks Hit European Airports: A major cyberattack on Sept. 20 crippled passenger processing systems at multiple European airports, forcing flight delays, cancellations and even flight diversions. Hackers struck the MUSE check-in software (made by Collins Aerospace, part of RTX), disrupting self check-in and baggage drops at London’s Heathrow – Europe’s busiest airport – as well as airports in Berlin, Brussels, Dublin and more. Aviation authorities had to revert to manual check-ins, and some airports preemptively slashed schedules for days until systems were restored. Experts said the incident bore hallmarks of a ransomware attack, underscoring the “fragile and interdependent” digital backbone of air travel. While the perpetrator wasn’t immediately identified, the sweeping outage spotlighted the growing threat hackers pose to critical transport infrastructure worldwide.
US Races to Fix Zero‑Day in Cisco Gear: America’s cyber defenders sounded an alarm after discovering a “widespread” hacking campaign exploiting a previously unknown flaw in Cisco network security devices. In a rare emergency directive, the Department of Homeland Security’s CISA gave federal agencies just 24 hours to find all affected Cisco ASA firewalls on their networks, scan for breaches, and apply patches. The targeted appliances, meant to shield corporate and government systems, were undermined by a sophisticated malware dubbed “ArcaneDoor,” which Cisco’s own analysts tied to a Chinese state-linked cyber-espionage group. Beijing routinely denies hacking accusations. The episode highlights a sobering reality: even the devices meant to keep hackers out are themselves high-value targets. US officials warned that unpatched network gear can provide attackers a stealthy foothold, and they urged organisations worldwide to shore up edge defences as adversaries hone their tactics in cyberspace.

YAVA’S TAKEAWAYS:

Allies Accelerate Armament: From Poland’s submarine fleet to Turkey’s F-16 deals and new transatlantic arms funding schemes, Western nations are moving from rhetoric to action on rearmament. The pace of procurement is fast-tracking in response to Russian aggression – even bending old rules (like EU nations bankrolling US weapons) to get crucial capabilities where they’re needed. NATO’s resolve to modernise and expand its arsenal is now on full display, marking a historic gear-shift in allied defence posture.
Drone and Missile Threats Spur Quick Fixes: Recent provocations – be it drones trespassing over Poland and Denmark or North Korea edging toward an ICBM nuclear strike capacity – are reshaping security priorities overnight. We see agile countermeasures: NATO allies improvising joint anti-drone deployments and hardening infrastructure on short notice, while Indo-Pacific allies double down on missile defences and diplomatic pressure. Unmanned systems and long-range missiles are challenging traditional defences, forcing democracies to get creative and proactive in plugging gaps (from summits in Copenhagen to skies over Seoul).
Dual-Use Tech Moves to the Frontline: The rise of venture-backed defence startups is blurring the line between commercial and military innovation. Whether it’s a handheld satcom device turning a radio into a satellite phone or AI-driven systems for battlefield awareness, private tech firms are delivering capabilities in months that governments used to field in years. Commcrete’s story – scaling secure comms in a portable form – echoes a broader trend: the Pentagon and allied militaries are eagerly tapping civilian tech talent for an edge, and investors are pouring record funding into “miltech” ventures. This fusion of Silicon Valley agility with defence know-how could prove decisive as great-power rivalries intensify, but it also demands robust cyber safeguards (a lesson driven home by the Cisco breach).
Resilience Equals Deterrence: Hardening the invisible backbones of society, including power grids, data networks, airports, and supply lines, is now as critical to national security as buying tanks and jets. Eastern Europe’s bunker plan for substations, the airport ransomware chaos, and emergency patch mandates all underscore that a nation’s resilience (its ability to take a punch and keep operating) is a key measure of its strength. Adversaries are exploiting any weakness, from power stations to software code, making “infrastructure defence” the new watchword. In today’s contested environment, a resilient homeland – one that can withstand cyber shocks, drone incursions, and supply chain disruptions – directly bolsters military deterrence by denying hostile actors the chance to paralyse or distract. The bottom line: secure networks and reliable energy may win as many wars in the 21st century as stealth fighters and smart missiles.