BI-WEEKLY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 17.10.2025 to 04.11.2025
- Jan 6
- 8 min read
Updated: Jan 14
2025 YAVA Market Insights
Welcome to the latest edition of Dual-Use Dispatch – your bi-weekly briefing on the intersection of commercial innovation and national security.
In this issue: Global rearmament ramps up as India approves a $9 billion weapons package and Turkey inks a major fighter jet deal with the UK. Allies fortify their defences – Indonesia eyes more A400M airlifters, NATO hails its rapid response deterring Russian incursions, and Chinese bombers staged drills near Taiwan ahead of a Trump–Xi summit. Meanwhile, cyber and infrastructure resilience are in the spotlight: Russia pounds Ukraine’s power grid heading into winter and a stealthy telecom hack exposes systemic risks.
MAJOR PROCUREMENT DEVELOPMENTS
India’s $9 Billion Arms Push: New Delhi’s defence acquisition council cleared proposals on Oct 23 to spend 790 billion rupees (~$9 billion) on new missile systems, high-mobility vehicles, naval guns and more. The approvals span all three services – from Nag anti-tank guided missiles and mobile ELINT stations for the Army, to amphibious landing ships, advanced light torpedoes and 30 mm naval cannon for the Navy, plus a long-range drone swarm system for the Air Force. Officials cast the package as a boost to India’s combat power amid “challenging” regional security, and domestic defence firms are expected to benefit under the push for indigenous systems. It marks one of India’s biggest procurement waves in recent years as the nation races to modernise its forces in the face of a assertive China and enduring Pakistan tensions.
Turkey’s Eurofighter Deal with UK: Turkey has sealed a landmark agreement to buy 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets from Britain for £8 billion (~$10.7 billion), complete with a comprehensive weapons packager. The deal – signed in Ankara on Oct 27 with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in attendance – includes MBDA’s Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, advanced ASRAAMs, and Brimstone ground-attack missiles for the Typhoons. It marks Turkey’s biggest fighter purchase in decades and signals Ankara’s warmest ties with the West in years. Turkish officials said the advanced warplanes will help close gaps with regional rivals, like Israel, that have deployed high-end jets across the Middle East. The first batch of Typhoons is due in 2030, and Ankara is also in talks to acquire 24 lightly-used Typhoons from Qatar and Oman to quickly bolster its aging fleet. While some analysts called the purchase pricey, Turkey views it as vital for air-defence and interoperability with NATO – setting aside past friction in favor of deepening UK partnership in the face of regional instability.
Indonesia Eyes More A400M Airlifters: As part of a broader military modernisation drive, Indonesia may buy four additional Airbus A400M transport planes to reinforce its strategic airlift capacity. President (and former general) Prabowo Subianto said on Nov 3 that Jakarta is considering negotiations for the extra A400Ms, which would nearly triple its fleet – Indonesia received its first two A400Ms earlier this year. Big-ticket acquisitions have picked up since Prabowo became defense minister in 2019 and then president in 2024, with multiple deals for fighter jets, submarines and naval vessels. The A400M, a versatile heavy transport, would enhance Indonesia’s ability to move troops and supplies across its vast archipelago and aid disaster response. It fits into Jakarta’s pattern of “revamping its ageing military through a string of hardware deals” – from Rafale and F-15EX fighters on order to new frigates and drones. Bolstering airlift also aligns with Indonesia’s aims to be a regional humanitarian hub and strengthen defence ties with NATO suppliers amid China’s growing assertiveness in Asia-Pacific.
STARTUP RADAR: DUAL-USE IN FOCUS Vermeer (USA) – GPS-Free Navigation for Contested Environments
A low-profile but increasingly vital startup is gaining attention for solving one of modern warfare’s most pressing problems: how to navigate when GPS is denied. Vermeer, a New York-based company founded in 2019, has developed a computer vision-powered “Visual Positioning System” (VPS) that enables drones and robotic systems to operate autonomously without relying on satellite signals. By matching live video feeds with known terrain and built-in maps, Vermeer’s platform allows unmanned systems to fly, land, and manoeuvre in environments where GPS is jammed, spoofed, or simply unavailable.
This capability has proven especially critical on the front lines in Ukraine, where Russian forces routinely deploy electronic warfare to blind drones. Vermeer’s VPS has reportedly been deployed by Ukrainian forces and is being evaluated for broader use by NATO partners. Its dual-use potential extends well beyond the battlefield: from delivery drones navigating dense cities to autonomous vehicles operating underground or in natural disaster zones where GPS is disrupted.
Vermeer’s pitch to defence customers is clear: resilience equals mission assurance. As militaries prepare for future conflicts in electromagnetically contested environments—particularly in the Indo-Pacific—systems that don’t depend on satellite infrastructure offer a crucial edge. The company’s roots trace back to the US Air Force Techstars accelerator and AFWERX programs, and it has partnered with multiple defence primes, including Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, to integrate its tech into larger platforms.
Recent developments (Oct 2025):
Series A Milestone: Vermeer closed a $10 million Series A funding round in late October 2025 to scale its GPS-independent navigation platform. The round was led by Draper Associates, a prominent dual-use tech investor, with participation from Rockaway Ventures and AeroX. The funding will support hiring, further AI training, and deployment support for both defence and commercial customers.
Combat Validation: Vermeer’s system is already operational in Ukraine, providing battlefield navigation for drones under GPS-denied conditions. This real-world usage is seen as a major credibility boost as Western militaries look to ruggedise autonomous systems.
Dual-Use Growth Path: Beyond defence, Vermeer is exploring use cases in drone logistics, mining, infrastructure inspection, and autonomous ground vehicles—wherever GPS signals are blocked or unreliable. The goal is to make VPS a default autonomy layer for mission-critical mobility.
Competitive Landscape: While many autonomy companies rely heavily on GPS or lidar, Vermeer’s edge lies in pure vision-based guidance, making it cheaper, lighter, and more resilient. Competitors include firms like Shield AI and Skydio, but Vermeer’s core bet is that GPS-free operation will become table stakes in any near-peer conflict or remote logistics environment.
Company snapshot:
Name: Vermeer
Headquarters: New York City, USA
Founded: 2019
Funding: ~$10 million raised (Series A in Oct 2025)
Notable Investors/Partners: Draper Associates, Rockaway Ventures, AeroX; partnerships with USAF, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman
Website: https://getvermeer.com
MAJOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS
NATO: Deterred Incursions, Hybrid Threats: NATO’s top commander says Russia appears “deterred” after the Alliance’s robust response to recent airspace violations, but warns Moscow is adapting with subtler “hybrid” tactics. US General Alexus Grynkewich noted that Russian jets which crossed into Estonia in September were promptly intercepted and that Russia’s drones violating Polish airspace were shot down – the first time NATO forces engaged Russian targets in the Ukraine war. NATO’s firm actions have made the Kremlin “more careful” not to repeat overt incursions. However, at least 38 mysterious drone incidents have since been logged across Northern Europe (from oil platforms to airports), likely testing Alliance resolve In response, NATO and EU states are racing to bolster counter-drone defences and fortify their eastern flank.
Chinese Bombers Drill Near Taiwan: In a brazen show of force days before the Trump–Xi meeting, China’s PLA flew nuclear-capable H-6K bombers and fighter escorts around Taiwan for “simulated confrontation drills.” State media publicised the exercise on Oct 27 – clearly aimed at intimidating Taipei and underscoring Beijing’s territorial claims as the US and Chinese presidents met in South Korea. Taiwan’s defence ministry condemned the bomber flights as a “propaganda operation aimed at intimidation,” urging the public to stay resilient against such psychological warfare. Chinese officials, for their part, vowed to defend China’s sovereignty and warned against “foreign interference.” The timing of the drills appeared calibrated: just minutes before sitting down with Xi, President Trump ordered the US military to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year halt – a stark reminder of hard power amid the high-stakes talks.
Trump Orders Nuclear Test Resumption: In a move rocking the strategic stability norm, US President Donald Trump on Oct 30 instructed the Pentagon to restart nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992. The surprise directive, given just before Trump’s summit with Xi, cited the need to ensure the reliability of the US arsenal and to signal resolve amid Russia’s and China’s military expansions. US officials said preparations would begin at the Nevada Test Site, although any live detonation is likely months away and would shatter a de facto global testing moratorium. Moscow quickly warned it would mirror any US test “tit-for-tat.” Analysts fear this could herald a new nuclear arms race, undermining the CTBT treaty. The decision comes as Russia itself has been brandishing nuclear projects (from a nuclear-powered cruise missile to undersea torpedoes) and after Putin revoked Russia’s ratification of the test-ban pact. NATO allies have expressed concern, emphasising that breaking the 30-year testing taboo could erode global non-proliferation efforts.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CYBER SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS
Ukraine Endures Renewed Grid Barrage: Russia launched a massive wave of drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in late October, forcing nationwide power restrictions and causing civilian casualties. The Oct 30 onslaught – over 650 Shahed drones and 50 missiles – hit power plants and substations across central and western regions, killing at least seven people. Kyiv officials say Moscow is blatantly targeting the electric grid “as the cold winter months approach” to demoralise. This marks the second straight winter Russia has tried to cripple Ukraine’s grid as a war tactic. In response, Ukraine has been rushing to repair damage, deploy better air defence interceptors like Iris-T and NASAMS systems, and add grid resilience – from sourcing spare transformers to installing backup battery storage. Officials say despite inevitable outages, they are better prepared this year to keep the lights on and heating running through Russia’s “energy terror” campaign.
Stealthy Hack Breaches Telecom Tech Firm: A critical but little-known US telecom technology provider, Ribbon Communications, revealed it was hacked by a suspected nation-state actor – and the intruders went undetected in its network for nearly a year. Ribbon facilitates voice and data links for many of the world’s largest telecom carriers, which made this breach especially alarming. The company’s SEC filing in late October said hackers initially accessed its systems in Dec 2024 and weren’t discovered until September 2025. Three customer systems were impacted, though Ribbon has so far found no evidence the attackers stole sensitive data or penetrated clients’ networks. Cybersecurity experts note this incident fits a broader pattern of state-backed espionage targeting the global telecommunications ecosystem. Chinese-linked hacker groups in particular have a history of infiltrating telecom hubs to spy on communications.
YAVA’S TAKEAWAYS
Arms Race on Fast-Forward: From South Asia to NATO’s frontier, nations are expediting big-ticket arms buys in response to mounting threats. India’s ₹790 bn procurement blitz and Turkey’s Typhoon deal, following similar European moves last month, signal that peacetime caution is giving way to urgency. Expect more “buy, buy, buy” activity as governments prioritise air defence systems, fighter jets and force multipliers – particularly those that can be fielded fast – to counter regional aggressors. The global rearmament trend of 2025 shows no sign of slowing; if anything, it’s accelerating as conflict pressures grow.
Deterrence by Overmatch – and Risk: The past weeks underscore a return to hard-power signalling. NATO’s rapid Eastern Sentry deployments and Poland’s drone shoot-downs appear to have checked Russia’s brazenness, at least for now. In the Indo-Pacific, however, China is unblinkingly flexing – running nuclear-capable bomber drills to intimidate Taiwan. Meanwhile, Trump’s order to resume US nuclear tests, and Putin’s reciprocal threats, mark a jarring revival of Cold War brinkmanship. Together, these events reflect a doctrine of deterrence through overmatch: show the adversary you’re willing to go further. It’s a high-stakes game – one that may bolster allied resolve, but also edges the world into a more volatile strategic balance.
Resilience = Combat Power: Recent developments drive home that a nation’s strength is not just tanks and missiles, but also the robustness of its infrastructure and networks. Ukraine’s efforts to disperse and harden its power grid, and keep the lights on through Russian barrages, directly impact its warfighting stamina. The sprawling telecom hack and the spike in cyberattacks on corporations show how adversaries can erode security by hitting supply chains and civilian systems. Allies are responding: NATO is patrolling undersea cables, the EU is pushing Big Tech to counter disinformation and the UK is effectively treating cybersecurity as critical national defence. The takeaway: societal resilience – energy, communications, industry continuity – now underpins deterrence and defence. In modern conflict, keeping factories running or data flowing can matter as much as a new weapons system on the frontline.
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